Hey Seth, Stop Stealing My Ideas

Seth Davis at CNNSI is stealing my opinions. Bastard! He suggests to Coach K the need to give more playing time to a couple of Duke freshmen.

Here’s Seth Davis today:

• If Coach K asked my advice (which he does all the time), I would tell him to force-feed freshmen Andre Dawkins and Mason Plumlee a lot more minutes, even if it means losing a few games as they learn the ropes. Those two need to learn to play through mistakes, and the Blue Devils will need their help to reach the Final Four.

Now here’s me after the Georgetown loss two weeks ago:

The question is, moving forward, what can Coach K do about it, if anything?

I’ll be honest, I don’t have the answer. There is no quick fix. If I had a say (which I don’t), I’d probably say screw the regular season and screw worrying about our tournament seeding. We need to develop Mason and Andre. One is our best athlete, the other could be our best shooter. They’re not going to ever improve playing just 10 minutes per game.

Hell, here’s me this past weekend:

Mason’s increase time is a good development. As we’ve discussed before, this Duke team with Mason and Andre Dawkins playing few minutes, has a ceiling and it’s not in the final four. It’s Sweet 16 at best. I’ve been preaching for a while that it was more important to develop these two through playing time, because if (and I know that’s a big ‘if’) they can improve and play to their potential, Duke’s ceiling is raised.

And two weeks ago after the win over Georgia Tech:

Duke has a ceiling if he (Mason) doesn’t get better then that ceiling is not the Final Four. I’m not saying it is with Mason, but if he can get better here in the last month and a half, then Duke’s ceiling can only go higher.

Note: I actually don’t think Seth Davis stole this from me. If anything, I would steal from him, just to improve my standings around the ladies (does Seth Davis articles really help with the ladies? Not sure, we’ll check on that).

We’ll go out on a limb and say he’s certainly never heard of Big Duke Balls. Hell, I’m sure someone else has said the exact same thing long before I did. However, he and I both have good points. Mason and Andrea need to play.

Now if only I could get Seth’s salary.

Ballsy ACC Power Rankings

For now, two teams have pulled away from the pack…and when we say “pulled away” we’re really only talking about one game in the loss column. Meanwhile, four teams are quickly playing their way out of the NCAA Tournament.

No 1 DUKE
Duke has seven games left on the schedule, but none are against teams currently ranked in the top-25 (although that should change soon enough if the Terps can sneak in this week). If the Devils can play like we all know they can, there is no reason they can’t finish 6-1 (counting at least one loss, probably at Maryland).
NCAA OUTLOOK: Lock. Winning the ACC should be enough to earn them a No 2 seed.

No 2 MARYLAND
Even though the ass-kicking of the Tar Heels was impressive, I was actually more impressed by the win against Florida State. The win over Carolina was a home game against a team that can’t beat anyone. The win at FSU was at a hostile environment, coming off a tough loss against Clemson. Right now, Greivis Vasquez is looking like the ACC player of the year, but Maryland would probably have to win the ACC for that to happen.
NCAA OUTLOOK: Lock. They still have two games against Duke that should decide the conference title. If not, a 4.5 seed is not too shabby.

No 3 WAKE FOREST
They’re 5-2 in their last seven, with their only two loses come at Duke and at Georgia Tech. It’s like asking out Scarlett Johansson and Jessica Alba and getting rejected…there’s no shame in that. Of course, they lost those two games by an average of 20.5ppg, which would be like asking out Scarlett Johansson and Jessica Alba and having them throw water in your face and kneeing you in the nuts…there’s a little shame in that. So far this season, Wake has dropped five games and in those five loses, they’ve shot 24-85 from three-point range. That’s 28%. Maybe they should take less three’s, just a thought.
NCAA OUTLOOK: Lock. If they finish 4-3, they’ll lock down a second straight 20-win season.

Duke 2-0 in February

Thursday night, Duke crushed Georgia Tech at home. Nothing new, nothing unexpected. Duke wins at home. Saturday though, Duke took their show on the road and won their first tough game of the year. Think about it. At Cameron, Duke is cruising, winning by an average of 28ppg and 18ppg against ACC competition.

On neutral sites, Duke has rolled beating Arizona State, Connecticut and Iowa State by over 13ppg.

On the road though, Duke has been crushed twice, while losing two tight ones to Wisconsin and Georgia  Tech. That’s right, after 22 games Duke had been involved in only two tight games. Both on the road. Both loses.

NOTE: I forget to mention the Clemson game (at Clemson). We won that won, but that also was an easy one, as Duke pulled away early in the second half.

Against B.C., Duke finally pulled out a tight one, something important if they’re going to advance anywhere in the tournament.

They did it with timely rebounding, late free throws and stellar defense on the final play.

SO WHAT DID I SEE?

Everyone touching the ball. Oddly, I felt like other Devils besides the big three were heavily involved, but when you look at the box score, you realize Singler, Scheyer and Smith still hit 19 of the team’s 23 shots, including all five three pointers. In reality, Duke’s new motion offense isn’t necessarily about getting everyone more shots, it’s about letting everyone touch the ball during an offensive possession.

Mason in/Miles Out. For the second time in a row, Mason Plumlee saw over 18 minutes on the floor (20 against BC), while Miles has failed to play more than 10 minutes. Against the Eagles, Miles only played seven minutes of basketball (the same as Ryan Kelly).

While I don’t want to see Miles disappear from the rotation, Mason’s increase time is a good development. As we’ve discussed before, this Duke team with Mason and Andre Dawkins playing few minutes, has a ceiling and it’s not in the final four. It’s Sweet 16 at best. I’ve been preaching for a while that it was more important to develop these two through playing time, because if (and I know that’s a big ‘if’) they can improve and play to their potential, Duke’s ceiling is raised.

Duke Undefeated in February

If only the NCAA Tournament could be played in Durham.

Your Duke Blue Devils rebounded nicely from that embarrassing loss to Georgetown with an easy 19-point win over Georgia Tech. The Devils are now 13-0 at home, 5-0 in the conference (at home). They’re winning their home games by an average of 28 points per game. Only St John’s manged to not lose by double digits (they lost by nine). In conference, Duke is winning by 18ppg.

Most importantly, Duke is 1-0 in February. Celebration time!

SO WHAT DID I SEE?

Kyle Singler should find a way to sprain his wrist more often. For about 18 minutes, it looked like Singler’s season long slump would continue. He was 1-5 from the floor 18 minutes into the game. Then he went down hard and sprained his already injured wrist. Despite this, he came back in for Duke’s last possession in the first half and hit a three from the corner…and just like that, the slump ended.

Okay, I may be getting waaaaay ahead of myself, but it was sure nice to see Singler have his first great shooting game in a long time. He shot 8-12 the rest of way, but shockingly, he was only 1-7 from inside the three for the game, but 8-10 from outside.

So what does this mean going forward? Nothing…yet. Yes, one great game has ended many slumps over the history of basketball, but like we always say when something great happens at a home game, go do it on the road now.

Best of the ACC = Average Big East

Can we now finally move the Duke Blue Devils out of the top-10? After getting manhandled by Georgetown, isn’t it clear that this is not one of the top 10 teams in the nation? Hell, there is still little proof this is the best team in the ACC.

And let’s be real clear about this, Duke didn’t lose this game. This had nothing to do with a lack of effort, tired legs or an off shooting night. The Hoyas are a better team. The proof? Duke had zero answers. None.

Of course, Duke will still win a lot of games this year. Duke will probably still win the ACC and Duke will again get a high seed, but unless it gets lucky in the tournament (higher seeds getting knocked off before facing Duke), this is not a championship team, this is not a final four team, this isn’t even a Elite Eight team.

Think I’m being too harsh? I’m not, despite the addition of some new pieces, this Duke team is the same as last year’s Duke team.

NO INSIDE GAME: Just look what Greg Monroe did against our big men. He shot 7-11 (two of those misses were three-point shots), was fouled often (7-10 from the line). Just for kicks, he had five assists.

This season the argument has been, sure we can’t score with our inside game, but defensively we’re playing well. Sure, against lesser front lines, our boys have held their own. However, when facing talent, Duke can’t do anything. First, Monroe abused Lance Thomas for most of the game, rocked the Plumlee’s for a bit, before back-dooring Singler at the end. Duke was helpless.

The problem the past couple years has been the fact Duke has been forced to use Lance Thomas, a skinny 6′8 SF/PF to guard centers. The Plumlee brothers were suppose to allow Lance to move to a more natural position. Yet, here we were, over halfway through the season against a top-1o team and there’s Thomas trying to run around a guy who stands three inches taller, weighing a solid 30 pounds more.

Someone, somewhere explain to me how Duke will be able to handle a Patrick Patterson, DeMarcus Cousins or Cole Aldrich? Trust me, it would get ugly.

Myths – Tired Legs

Over the past few years, I’ve heard a few theories regarding Duke, often involving their recent struggles to reach the final four. In this edition of “Myths” we’re going to attempt to debunk one of them.

DUKE FAILS AT THE END OF THE SEASON DUE TO TIRED LEGS

This one is a very, very, very popular theory. Yet is it just a B.S. myth? First, the record. Duke has struggled late in season. This is a fact. This includes February and the tournament.

While I’ve heard many reasons for the struggles, people (including this blog) have worried about the Devils “legs” at the end of the season. The belief is, Coach K overworks his players by having them play too many minutes.

Are we underestimating Maryland?

Over at Testudo Tmes, they’re soaking up some Ken Pom, who has the Terps at No 11. At first, I thought they were delusional, but then I checked and realized I was the moron.

How the hell did Maryland get that high?

First, Ken Pom’s RPI gives a lot of love to the ACC. Duke is No 2, while six ACC teams are in the top-27. In the current AP poll, only Duke (#8) and Georgia Tech (#22) crack the top-25.

Second, the fact is, Maryland is winning. After a rough 5-3 start to the season, the Terps have won eight of 10. They’re leading the ACC with a 3-1 record. They’re third in the ACC in scoring (81.5ppg) and second in scoring margin (16.5ppg).

Even the rebounding has gotten better after some early season struggles. They’re +5.6rpg over their last 10 games, holding their own against teams like Wake Forest and Florida State.

Now, why can these rankings be right?

The Sun Came Up, Duke Won at Home

The Duke Blue Devils beat the Florida State Seminoles Wednesday night. The sun came up the following morning. Neither was surprising. Welcome to Duke basketball.

What’s my point? Who knows, I often don’t have one, so says my wife. What I’m trying to say is, Duke beat Florida State, a team they’ve beaten a lot. They won at home, where they beat everyone not named North Carolina. They won in January, something Duke excels at. So what can you say about a victory that was completely expected?

You would think I’d have a ton of great things to talk about, with tons of excellent points, but let’s face the facts, we’re Duke fans, we’re spoiled and in the regular season, especially in January, it hurts more to lose, than it feels good to win. That doesn’t mean I don’t have nothing to talk about.

SO WHAT DID I SEE?

Duke’s three-headed monster came roaring back tonight. Actually, they’ve been back in full force since the loss to Georgia Tech. Nolan, Jon and Kyle each played 38 minutes tonight. They took 42 of the teams 58 shots. They made 18 of the teams 25 baskets, scoring 53 of the teams 70 points. They hit all but one of Duke’s eight three-point shots. They grabbed over half the team’s rebounds (15 of 29) and dished out 12 of the 16 assists.

Jon Scheyer found his stroke, at least for a night. After struggling the past two weeks (17-52 from the field), Scheyer was 7-12, hitting four of six from three. Yet, he actually struggled tonight when he found himself in the paint (granted, lots of guards find trouble inside the paint against the Noles).

However, the man who once led the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, again struggled to not turn the ball over. He had five assists to four turnovers and even those stats are misleading.

Three of Jon’s assists were hand offs during a fast break, while three of his turnovers were the result of a dumb decision (often getting stuck in the air in the lane). While you might want to remind me that he still is No 1 in assist-turnover ratio in the ACC, I’m telling you, it’s becoming an issue. In his first three ACC games, Scheyer had 16 assists to only six turnovers. In his last four, he’s had 16 assists and 12 turnovers.

In fact, as a team in the ACC, the Devils have more turnovers (12.9 per game) than assists (11.9 per game).

The problem I have is, when Jon’s playing great, he finds ways to get players involved. When Jon’s stats are down and he struggles to handle the point, everyone not named Kyle or Nolan struggles to get into the flow of the offense.

Ballsy ACC Power Rankings

It was another crazy week in the ACC, yet I’m still stupid enough to try to put a ACC Power Rankings together. I’d be better off letting my cat does these, he’d do just as good.

Anyhow, this week, The Blue Devils saved themselves in Clemson, while another team I had ranked No 2 falls down the rankings. Wake Forest makes the biggest jump up, thus jinxing them for this week, while Carolina stays the same, despite the fact they haven’t won a game in 15 days.

Taming the Tiger, Take Two

Now that’s more like it. Duke walked into a hostile environment, kept it close for a half and then took over in the final 20 minutes. After opening up a quick 13-point lead with only seven and a half minutes gone by in the second period, Clemson was able to get back within seven, but that was as close it ever got. Duke just never let up and Clemson had no answer, other than Trevor Booker (of course).

SO WHAT DID I SEE?

Coach K decided that losing on the road ends here. How do I know? Because Singler, Scheyer and Smith played a combined 117 minutes. Singler and Scheyer played a full 40, while Nolan sat for three minutes, but that was just because he picked up two early fouls.

The Devils basically became a six-man rotation tonight. That’s how important this win was. Andre Dawkins saw no action tonight, while Mason Plumlee only got eight minutes on the court. Now if you’ve been reading this blog (and I know you have), I don’t agree with the strategy at all, no matter how much it paid off tonight. Let me explain.

What has been Duke’s problems over the years? If you’re a fan, you can easily pinpoint three of them. A) Not enough speed to handle quick guards. B) No inside game. C) Tired legs come March.

While Duke was really unable to address “A”, the Devils now have plenty of size, each capable of doing something positive inside the paint. That size also helps out some with “A” because it allows the Duke guards to get tough on the outside, because the inside guys can handle their own. However, that still leaves “C”.

No matter how good Duke looks NOW, no matter how many games they win NOW, the same storyline is going to reappear. That is, come March Duke will be burned out. This Duke team won’t have any legs left come tournament time. It’s been a stigma for a while now and let’s be honest, if Nolan, Kyle and Jon are going to keep playing 37-40 minutes per game in a brutal ACC, what kind of shape are they really going to be in come March Madness?