Comments on: What I Saw: Duke vs. St. John’s

By: David

David — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:24:51 +0000

Watching 3 perimeter players take up to 60% of the shots is the kind of thing that makes high school centers and forwards choose other schools over Duke!

By: robioland

robioland — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:54:50 +0000

All fair points. If you’re looking for a good comparison, let’s look at last year’s national champions.

North Carolina had three main stars; Hansbrough, Lawson and Ellington. They were 1-2-3 in attempts. They accounted for 48% of the Tar Heels’ shots, producing 52% of the scoring.

However, what made them a championship team was the fact five guys could score on you. Five different players took at least 330 shots. In fact, their starting five took 77% of the teams shots, hitting 80%.

When was the last time Duke had even four players take 300 shots? It was 2003-2004, the last time they went to the Final Four. That season, Duke saw Redick, Deng, Ewing and Duhon take 300 shots each, while Sheldon Williams had a solid 280 attempts.

By: Truth

Truth — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:22:30 +0000

Without further thought, the fact that Duke’s “Big Three” takes 59% of the shot attempts sounds like a bad thing. Then, upon further reflection, you realize that Scheyer, Singler, and Smith comprise 3/5′s (or 60%!) of the starting line-up. These three players also collectively average 35 mpg (whether that number is too high is an entirely separate debate) which equates to them playing 53% of the game. Sooo… maybe it is perfectly reasonable that 60% of your starting line-up, playing 53% of the game, would take 59% of the shot attempts. If those three players are also your best offensive options, as they are with Duke, one might even want that number to be a higher.

To really see whether Duke is in a uniquely troubling position with its current Top 3 scorers and their shot attempts, you would need to look at the Top 3 scorers on other teams in the ACC/NCAA to determine whether they are taking significantly less than 60% of their team’s field goal attempts. Without this information, we cannot assume Duke is in a uncommonly bad spot.

All that said, I’m just as anxious as you to develop a 4th scoring threat. I think that can easily be Andre Dawkins, and I hope that Mason Plumlee emerges as an offensive option in the post as well. There is little doubt that increasing the number of legitimate scoring options would increase the effectiveness of the overall team.

Nice blog — keep it up!